Long time trend forecasting

The human mind can only really comprehend linear changes. When it comes to exponential ones, very few can grasp what this means. (maybe Jules Vernes in his time managed to, but this is more an exception than the rule for sure)

Truth being told, in most cases, exponential evolution seldom lasts long. As the saying goes, even the tallest building never reaches the sky (or something like this).

However, it’s fascinating to read these books from futurologist like Ray Kurzweil or James Canton. They give you a great perspective of what could be vs. what you could think of. Even if I’m myself very technologically oriented, it’s mind boggling to see what they come up with by interpolating current trends and connecting dots.

Take for instance this Nokia video on what nanotech, one of those megatrends, could bring to the world of mobile phones (though one could hardly call this a phone). Really amazing and possible.

Nokia “Morph” concept

 

Anyway, if this is something of interest, here are a few books I can advise. I read the first one and I assisted at a talk by the author of the second one a few years back. I prefer the first one as I think Kurt is discounting a bit to quickly the complexity of the human brain that one could be able to model it completely that quickly (and even less be able to simulate the brains of the whole human brain in 1 laptop sized computer by 2040-ish). There is so much in the interactions between our brain-cells that go beyond a simple electrical signal model (hormones…) that I think it will take a long time (if ever) to really be able to model a real human brain with enough accuracy.

 

The Extreme Future: The Top Trends That Will Reshape the World for the Next 5, 10, and 20 Years: James Canton: Books

 

 

 

 

 

The Singularity Is Near: When Humans Transcend Biology: Ray Kurzweil: Books

 

 

 

 

 

Megatrends 2010: The Rise of Conscious Capitalism: Patricia Aburdene: Books

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